Global families urged to watch out for local risks | 理财业敦促富裕家庭警惕本地风险 - FT中文网
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财富管理

Global families urged to watch out for local risks
理财业敦促富裕家庭警惕本地风险

The safest diversification strategies must include business assets, revenue streams and currencies, say wealth managers
财富经理们表示,最安全的多元化战略必须考虑企业资产、收入流和货币因素。
Years ago, diversifying a large portfolio meant investing in 65 different companies in the country that you lived and worked in, rather than only 30. Fortunately for wealthy families today, spreading investment risk across more than one geography has become a lot easier.
多年前,将大型投资组合多样化意味着在你生活和工作的国家投资65家不同的公司,而不是只有30家。幸运的是,对于今天的富裕家庭来说,将投资风险分散到多个地区已经变得容易得多。
But wealth managers, private banks and family offices say that even more needs to be done — with other assets — to ensure that global families are not still too exposed to local risks.
但财富管理公司、私人银行和家族理财室表示,还需要在其它资产方面采取更多措施,以确保全球家族不会仍然过于暴露于本地风险之下。
Diversification, in simple terms, means spreading assets across sectors and countries to reduce the overall impact of adverse price movements in any one of them. Without it, families are, in effect, betting that wherever they live or work will always produce the best investment returns in the world.
简单来说,多元化意味着将资产分散到各个行业和国家,以减少其中任何一个行业或者国家的不利价格变动带来的总体影响。没有它,家庭实际上是在打赌,无论他们生活或工作在哪里,都会产生世界上最好的投资回报。
Even if that is the case for a short period, it will be a risky strategy for long-term investing. “For the vast majority of people, diversification is a good thing,” explains Ben Seager-Scott, head of multi-asset funds at Evelyn Partners.
即使短期内是这样,对于长期投资来说,这也是一种有风险的策略。“对绝大多数人来说,分散投资是件好事,”Evelyn Partners多资产基金主管本•西格尔-斯科特解释道。
However, he and others warn that there is no one-size-fits-all approach to diversification. As James Holder, head of Europe at Citi Private Bank, points out: “Everybody is different, this is not a homogenous marketplace.”
然而,他和其他人警告说,没有放之四海而皆准的多样化方法。正如花旗私人银行(Citi Private Bank)欧洲主管詹姆斯•霍尔德(James Holder)所指出的:“每个人都不一样,这不是一个同质化的市场。”
A wealth manager’s diversification strategy must, therefore, take in a full picture of a family’s life and priorities. This will include assets, liabilities, sources of earnings and revenue, places of spending, and tax jurisdictions.
因此,财富管理公司的多元化战略必须全面考虑一个家庭的生活和优先事项。这将包括资产、负债、收益和收入来源、支出地点和税收管辖区。
A similar, predictive exercise must be carried out for children or dependants: where they will live, what currency their inheritance will be in, and what their local tax system will be. It must factor in whether there are any plans to live somewhere else in the future — so that the adviser, for example, can start building up assets in that place earlier, to lessen the impact of currency moves. 
必须对子女或家属进行类似的预测:他们将住在哪里,他们继承到的遗产将以何种货币计价,以及他们当地的税收制度将是什么。此外,还必须考虑到未来是否有在其他地方居住的计划,例如,这样理财顾问就可以更早地开始在那个地方积累资产,以减轻汇率波动的影响。
For clients with a business based in one, or multiple, jurisdictions, it is especially important to look at where the company’s revenue is coming from, says Edward Park, chief investment officer at Brooks Macdonald. 
Brooks Macdonald首席投资长帕克(Edward Park)说,对于业务位于一个或多个司法管辖区的客户来说,了解公司收入的来源尤为重要。
Once this geographical information has been gathered, private banks, wealth managers and family offices will typically start to build a portfolio of equities and bonds drawn from a global weighted index, in which countries are divvied up based on their relative total market capitalisation.
一旦收集到这些地理信息,私人银行、财富管理公司和家族理财室通常就会开始根据全球加权指数构建股票和债券投资组合,在该指数中,各国根据其相对总市值进行划分。
Some business owners may still wish to use their own experience to invest in their local market, says Holder. “There may be circumstances where, because of the success of that business, because of the family’s experience of operating within a geographic environment, their network and connections, there may be very good reasons that they have such a competitive advantage,” he acknowledges.
霍尔德表示,一些企业主可能仍希望利用自己的经验投资当地市场。他承认:“在某些情况下,由于该企业的成功,由于该家族在某个地理环境中运营的经验、他们的人脉和关系,他们可能有很好的理由拥有这样的竞争优势。”
But, for others — especially owners whose businesses are in developing nations — the investment portfolio should be diversified almost entirely away from their home country.
但是,对于其他人——尤其是那些业务在发展中国家的所有者——投资组合应该分散,几乎完全远离本国。
A similar approach must be taken with business sectors, advisers suggest. “When a family has a substantial portion of their wealth in a cyclical industry — be that something like mining — we want to be quite careful that we focus their investments in a broad range of other sectors which are not aligned with that,” explains John Veale, deputy head of investments at multi-family office Stonehage Fleming.
顾问们建议,商业部门也必须采取类似的做法。多家族理财室Stonehage Fleming的投资副主管约翰•维勒(John Veale)解释说:“当一个家族的很大一部分财富处于一个周期性行业时——比如采矿业——我们要非常小心,把他们的投资重点放在与这个周期性行业不一致的广泛的其他行业。”
However, some sectors should be treated differently, he adds. For example, if a client runs a tech firm, that cannot rule out all other tech investments. “You [should] be thoughtful about what is done there as it would have been a very bad idea in the past few years to say, ‘I have got a tech company, therefore I am not investing in [tech companies]’,” Veale points out.
不过,他补充称,某些行业应区别对待。例如,如果客户经营一家科技公司,那就不能排除所有其他科技投资。维勒指出:“你(应该)仔细考虑一下这些公司都做了些什么,因为在过去几年里,说‘我有一家科技公司,因此我不投资(科技公司)’是一个非常糟糕的主意。”
Currency is a further diversification factor, but rarely straightforward. Most wealth managers will not hedge any equity holdings, believing that equities move inversely to the currency in which they are priced. But, for fixed income securities, Park says, there are a number of academic studies showing currency fluctuations have more impact on performance than duration and yield.
货币是另一个分散投资的因素,但很少是直截了当的。多数财富管理公司不会对冲任何股票头寸,因为他们相信,股票的走势与计价货币的走势相反。但是,帕克表示,对于固定收益证券,有许多学术研究表明,货币波动对业绩的影响大于期限和收益率。
For wealth managers, then, the overall objective must be to “prevent currency from being the dominant element [in a portfolio],” says Samy Chaar, chief economist at Lombard Odier.
Lombard Odier首席经济学家萨米•查尔(Samy Chaar)表示,因此,对于财富管理公司来说,总体目标必须是“防止货币成为(投资组合中的)主导因素”。
In practice, however, diversification will not always deliver the highest returns, as it is not intended to do that.
然而,在实践中,分散投资并不总能带来最高回报,因为它的初衷并非如此。
For example, diversified US-based or Swiss-based investors will have missed out on all of the huge outperformance of their home markets compared with international peers.
例如,以美国或瑞士为基地的多元化投资者将错过他们本国市场与国际同行相比的所有巨大超额收益。
This can lead to clients wondering if they should focus more on their home markets. But Chaar warns against it, saying that it can lead some to chase returns and mistime the market. “If you do so, it would be like selling at the trough,” rather than the peak, he suggests.
这可能会让客户怀疑,他们是否应该把更多精力放在本国市场上。但查尔警告说,这可能会导致一些人追逐回报,错失市场时机。他建议说:“如果你这样做,就等于在低谷而不是高峰时卖出。”
Once assets are invested, a wealth manager will continually review the portfolio, and its degree of diversification. “It is a very live process that never really ends,” says Holder.
一旦投资了资产,理财经理将不断审查投资组合及其多样化程度。“这是一个非常活跃的过程,永远不会真正结束,”霍尔德说。
Even if nothing has changed from a client’s perspective, there may be a fundamental change to make in the portfolio — for example, in the past year, there has been a move towards fixed income products, which are producing real, above-inflation, returns for the first time in a decade. Also, the past few years have also been abnormal in terms of market stressors, so investors might be forgiven for wondering if it is almost too difficult to diversify them away.
即使从客户的角度来看没有任何变化,投资组合也可能发生根本性的变化——例如,过去一年,投资者转向了固定收益产品,这些产品10年来首次产生了高于通胀水平的实际回报。此外,就市场压力因素而言,过去几年也不正常,因此投资者可能会怀疑,分散投资是否太难了。
“[Markets have been] hit by a series of very rare external shocks, the pandemic and war in Ukraine . . . it has been pretty intense,” admits Chaar. “You do not [normally] have to deal with these every five years.”
“(市场)受到了一系列非常罕见的外部冲击、疫情和乌克兰战争(的影响)……这是相当激烈的,”查尔承认,“你(通常)不必每五年处理一次这些问题。”
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