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Dear reader,
亲爱的读者，
Magic does not work. Science does. The first morphed into the second via alchemy. This fruitless quest to transmute base metals into gold laid the foundations for systematic experimentation. One of the finest fruits of the latter is the victory of medical science over a lengthening list of diseases.
魔术是假的。科学才是真的。不过，前者通过炼金术演变成后者。这种将贱金属转化为黄金的无果探索为系统实验奠定了基础。后者的最佳成果之一，就是医学科学战胜了越来越多的疾病。
Lex explored this theme — and R&D as a broader topic — in this week’s column. You can email me about that, or any other aspect of our coverage at [email protected].
Lex在本周的专栏中探讨了这个主题，以及研发作为一个更广泛的话题。您可以通过[email protected]给我发送电子邮件，讨论这个问题或我们报道的任何其他方面。
One of my first jobs at the Financial Times was writing about pharmaceuticals. As I prepare to retire from full-time journalism, it stands out as one of the few areas where well-financed innovation has indisputably improved the world.
我在英国《金融时报》(Financial Times)的第一份工作之一是写药品方面的报道。随着我准备从全职新闻工作中退休，这个领域成为少数几个有充足资金支持的创新无可争议地改善了世界的领域之一。
I unwittingly contributed to a broad bust in UK biotech stocks in the late 1990s by exposing the inaccuracy of claims made by flagship company British Biotech. Its drugs did not work.
在1990年代末，我无意中揭露了英国生物技术公司(British Biotech)旗舰公司所做声明的不准确性，从而导致了英国生物技术股票的大规模崩盘。他们的药物并没有起作用。
Just over a decade later I was bemoaning the Götterdämmerung of Big Pharma in the Lombard column. Pharma units languished at discounts to healthcare divisions selling bunion cream within the valuations of companies such as GSK.
在十多年后，我在《伦巴第专栏》(Lombard column)中哀叹着大型制药公司的黄昏(Götterdämmerung)。制药部门在估值中表现不佳，相比之下，像GSK这样的公司旗下销售痛风膏等保健产品的部门则享有更高的估值。
One analyst told me most potential blockbuster drugs had been discovered — although that was plainly unknowable.
一位分析师告诉我，大多数潜在的畅销药物已经被发现了——尽管这显然是无法预知的。
Then, starting in 2013, Gilead of the US delivered a series of breakthrough treatments for hepatitis B. In 2014, AstraZeneca rebuffed a takeover bid from Pfizer with projections for sales of new drugs many observers thought were wildly optimistic.
然后，从2013年开始，美国的吉利德(Gilead)公司推出了一系列治疗乙型肝炎的突破性疗法。2014年，阿斯利康(AstraZeneca)拒绝了辉瑞(Pfizer)的收购要约，并给出了许多观察家认为过于乐观的新药销售预测。
Since then, the Anglo-Swedish group has made extraordinary progress. It has been one of the lead developers of the immunotherapy drugs that are at last pushing back cancer.
从那时起，这个英瑞集团取得了非凡的进展。它成为了免疫疗法药物的主要开发者之一，这些药物终于开始抗击癌症。
AstraZeneca also produced a serviceable Covid vaccine. But it was German start-up BioNTech that really turned the tide against coronavirus in 2020 — with a little help from Pfizer.
阿斯利康也生产了一种可用的新冠疫苗。但真正在 2020 年扭转冠状病毒疫情的是德国初创公司BioNTech——辉瑞公司也提供了一点帮助。
For some pharma groups, notably Sanofi of France, the pandemic was a time of embarrassing and very public underperformance. This week, chief executive Paul Hudson admitted he had fumbled the scrapping of 2025 margin targets.
对于一些制药集团，尤其是法国的赛诺菲(Sanofi)，这次大流行是一个令人尴尬且非常公开的表现不佳的时刻。本周，首席执行官保罗•哈德森(Paul Hudson)承认他在取消2025年利润率目标方面犯了错误。
Investors fear the company is over-dependent on blockbuster asthma and eczema drug Dupixent. Sales should top €20bn by 2030, with exclusivity running out not long after. Pipeline drugs will need to come on stream to replace lost earnings.
投资者担心该公司过度依赖畅销的哮喘和湿疹药物Dupixent。到2030年，销售额将超过200亿欧元，不久之后，专卖权就会到期。需要推出新的药物来取代失去的收入。
The success of weight loss drugs from Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly has prompted other invidious comparisons. Roche is therefore acquiring US-based obesity drugs developer Carmot for up to $3.1bn. The Swiss company already has a packed pipeline. The problem is that too many drug trials have failed.
诺和诺德(Novo Nordisk)和礼来公司(Eli Lilly)的减肥药取得的成功引发了其他令人嫉妒的比较。因此，罗氏(Roche)将以高达31亿美元的价格收购总部位于美国的肥胖药物开发公司Carmot。这家瑞士公司已经有了一条满满的产品线。问题在于太多的药物试验失败了。
Merck knows how that feels. Its shares slumped 12 per cent on Wednesday after a multiple sclerosis medicine flopped in late-stage trials. The market value dropped by €4.5bn, much more than the prospective value of the drug. Merck badly needs cancer treatment Xevinapant to succeed.
默克公司深有体会。一种多发性硬化症药物在后期试验中失败后，默克公司的股价在周三暴跌了 12%。市值下跌了 45 亿欧元，远高于该药物的预期价值。默克公司急需癌症治疗药物Xevinapant取得成功。
China’s pharma researchers do a lot of R&D of their own, but do not seem to produce many blockbusters. Even so, it would be highly regrettable if the US stuck a spanner in the works of Chinese drugs research.
中国的制药研究人员自己进行了大量的研发工作，但似乎并没有生产出很多畅销药。即便如此，如果美国对中国的药物研究投以阻碍，那将是非常遗憾的。
The stock of Wuxi Biologics fell steeply this week after a profit warning. In Lex’s view, the shares were on a hair trigger. Foreign investors fear that America could extend sanctions against Chinese digital technology to its pharmaceuticals.
药明生物(Wuxi Biologics)的股价在本周因盈利预警而大幅下跌。在Lex的观点中，这些股票处于非常敏感的状态。外国投资者担心美国可能会将对中国数字技术的制裁扩展到其制药业。
This would hurt science and healthcare. But there is no cure for human folly.
这将对科学和医疗造成伤害。但是人类的愚蠢是无法治愈的。
Nor for rent seeking. This is embodied in the expensive, dysfunctional and unfair US healthcare system.
这也不是为了寻租。它体现在昂贵、功能失调和不公平的美国医疗保健系统中。
The advent of “value-based” care under the US’s state Medicare and Medicaid systems is triggering a gold rush among insurers, healthcare providers and benefits managers. One consequence, after successive rounds of consolidation, is a mooted $140bn insurance tie-up between Cigna and Humana.
在联邦医疗保险计划和医疗补助下，出现了“以价值为基础”的医疗模式，这引发了保险公司、医疗服务提供商和福利管理机构之间的一场热潮。在一系列整合之后，信诺(Cigna)和Humana计划进行一项价值约1400亿美元的保险合并。
US healthcare is a horrible embarrassment, if, like me, you would prefer markets to deliver optimal outcomes. This is still possible for Airbus’s planned replacement for the A320 narrow-body jet.
如果像我一样，你更希望市场能够实现最佳结果，那么美国的医疗保健系统是一个可怕的尴尬。对于空客(Airbus)计划中的A320窄体飞机的替代品，这仍然是可能的。
The European consortium company has nevertheless hinted it may need state support for the research and development project. Just to keep boss Guillaume Faury on his toes, Lex calculated that private investors have a good chance of making a decent 14 per cent internal rate of return on the $15bn project.
然而，这家欧洲财团公司暗示可能需要国家支持这个研发项目。为了让总裁纪尧姆•福里(Guillaume Faury)保持警惕，Lex计算出私人投资者在这个150亿美元项目上有很大机会获得14%的良好内部回报率。
Better get weaving on those investor slide decks, M. Faury.
福里先生，最好开始制作那些投资者幻灯片了。
Developing quantum computers is a rather more speculative activity. Just to be clear, these do not work at present and may never do so. Quantum states are innately unstable, like markets. However, the publication of a seven-year development timeline by IBM should help to attract investment capital to the sector.
开发量子计算机是一项投机性更强的活动。需要说明的是，量子计算机目前还无法工作，而且可能永远无法工作。量子态天生就不稳定，就像市场一样。不过，IBM公布的七年发展时间表应该有助于吸引投资资本进入这一领域。
Digit fidget
数字焦虑
Lex uses steam-powered spreadsheets, not quantum computers, for its own calculations. Some of the figures we reported this week usefully highlighted key stories:
Lex在自己的计算中使用蒸汽动力电子表格，而不是量子计算机。本周我们报告的一些数字有助于突出关键故事：
Dual-listed German travel group Tui may ditch London to make Frankfurt its main quote. Median daily volume in the FTSE All-Share is just 0.15 per cent of market value, says Panmure. That compares with 0.2 per cent for the Stoxx 600 ex-UK and 0.7 per cent for the S&P 500.
两地上市的德国旅游集团途易(Tui)可能放弃伦敦，将法兰克福作为主要上市地。Panmure表示，富时全股指数(FTSE All-Share)的日成交量中值仅为市值的0.15%。相比之下，不含英国的斯托克600指数(Stoxx 600)和标准普尔500指数(S&P 500)的涨幅分别为0.2%和0.7%。
AJ Bell has revealed that cash accounts for 13.3 per cent of its retail customer assets. The UK DIY investment platform faces regulatory pressure to reduce the level. Citi estimates that every 1 percentage point fall in these cash balances erodes earnings by 6 per cent.
AJ Bell透露，现金占其零售客户资产的13.3％。这家英国自助投资平台面临着降低这一水平的监管压力。花旗(Citi)估计，这些现金余额每下降1个百分点，将使收益减少6％。
BAT has reduced its estimate of the economic life of its US brands from “forever” to 30 years. Even that may be optimistic. Cigarette makers are failing to persuade newly wealthy Asians to puff on their toxic wares. Nor are tobacco companies faring well in vapes.
Spotify is on course to generate $2.2mn in sales per employee following job cuts. Meta should manage $2.2mn and Netflix $3mn. The music streaming platform may need to cut more deeply.
英美烟草(BAT)将其美国品牌的经济寿命从“永远”缩短到30年。即使如此，这也可能是乐观的。香烟制造商未能说服新富裕的亚洲人吸食他们有毒的产品。烟草公司在电子烟方面也表现不佳。
Spotify在裁员后，剩下的每位员工有望创造220万美元的销售额。相比之下，Meta的这一数字应该达到220万美元，Netflix达到300万美元。这家音乐流媒体平台可能需要更大幅度的裁员。
Things I have enjoyed
我喜欢的
The closing credits of Napoleon. When they started rolling, it meant I did not have to watch the movie any more.
《拿破仑》(Napoleon)的片尾字幕开始滚动时，意味着我不必再看这部电影了。
Boney’s mob failed to kill my ancestor Gunner “Paisley Jimmy” Guthrie at the Battle of Waterloo. But I nearly lost my own will to live during this ahistorical, plodding account of the general’s life.
在滑铁卢战役中，博尼（拿破仑）的暴徒没能杀死我的祖先冈纳-“佩斯利-吉米”-格思里（Gunner "Paisley Jimmy" Guthrie）。但是，在观看这部缺乏历史感、对这位将军的生平乏善可陈的描述的电影时，我几乎失去了生存的意志。
I loved the Frans Hals exhibition at London’s National Gallery. Incredible portraiture was mournfully adorned by the name of defunct sponsor Credit Suisse.
我喜欢伦敦国家美术馆(London’s National Gallery)的弗兰斯•哈尔斯(Frans Hals)展览。令人难过的是，这些令人难以置信的肖像画被已倒闭的赞助商瑞信(Credit Suisse)的名字所装饰。
I have also greatly enjoyed writing for you over the past few years. Lex readers are smart, highly educated and always keen to debate an interesting point.
在过去的几年里，我也非常喜欢为您写作。Lex的读者聪明、受过良好教育，并且总是热衷于辩论一个有趣的观点。
Thank you so much for reading.
非常感谢您的阅读。
Au revoir,
再会，
Jonathan Guthrie
乔纳森•格思里(Jonathan Guthrie)
Head of Lex
Lex栏目主管
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