{"text":[[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":12.53,"text":"Dear reader, "}],[{"start":14.1,"text":"Magic does not work. "},{"start":15.991999999999999,"text":"Science does. "},{"start":17.322,"text":"The first morphed into the second via alchemy. "},{"start":20.027,"text":"This fruitless quest to transmute base metals into gold laid the foundations for systematic experimentation. "},{"start":25.807000000000002,"text":"One of the finest fruits of the latter is the victory of medical science over a lengthening list of diseases. "}],[{"start":32.06,"text":"Lex explored this theme — and R&D as a broader topic — in this week’s column. "},{"start":37.177,"text":"You can email me about that, or any other aspect of our coverage at [email protected]. "}],[{"start":43.730000000000004,"text":"One of my first jobs at the Financial Times was writing about pharmaceuticals. "},{"start":48.12200000000001,"text":"As I prepare to retire from full-time journalism, it stands out as one of the few areas where well-financed innovation has indisputably improved the world. "}],[{"start":56.96000000000001,"text":"I unwittingly contributed to a broad bust in UK biotech stocks in the late 1990s by exposing the inaccuracy of claims made by flagship company British Biotech. "},{"start":66.62700000000001,"text":"Its drugs did not work. "}],[{"start":69.28,"text":"Just over a decade later I was bemoaning the Götterdämmerung of Big Pharma in the Lombard column. "},{"start":74.59700000000001,"text":"Pharma units languished at discounts to healthcare divisions selling bunion cream within the valuations of companies such as GSK. "}],[{"start":81.75,"text":"One analyst told me most potential blockbuster drugs had been discovered — although that was plainly unknowable. "}],[{"start":88.4,"text":"Then, starting in 2013, Gilead of the US delivered a series of breakthrough treatments for hepatitis B. "},{"start":95.104,"text":"In 2014, AstraZeneca rebuffed a takeover bid from Pfizer with projections for sales of new drugs many observers thought were wildly optimistic. "}],[{"start":104.34,"text":"Since then, the Anglo-Swedish group has made extraordinary progress. "},{"start":108.732,"text":"It has been one of the lead developers of the immunotherapy drugs that are at last pushing back cancer. "}],[{"start":114.07000000000001,"text":"AstraZeneca also produced a serviceable Covid vaccine. "},{"start":117.899,"text":"But it was German start-up BioNTech that really turned the tide against coronavirus in 2020 — with a little help from Pfizer. "}],[{"start":124.85000000000001,"text":"For some pharma groups, notably Sanofi of France, the pandemic was a time of embarrassing and very public underperformance. "},{"start":132.067,"text":"This week, chief executive Paul Hudson admitted he had fumbled the scrapping of 2025 margin targets. "}],[{"start":138.44,"text":"Investors fear the company is over-dependent on blockbuster asthma and eczema drug Dupixent. "},{"start":143.582,"text":"Sales should top €20bn by 2030, with exclusivity running out not long after. "},{"start":149.037,"text":"Pipeline drugs will need to come on stream to replace lost earnings. "}],[{"start":153.16,"text":"The success of weight loss drugs from Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly has prompted other invidious comparisons. "},{"start":159.139,"text":"Roche is therefore acquiring US-based obesity drugs developer Carmot for up to $3.1bn. "},{"start":165.319,"text":"The Swiss company already has a packed pipeline. "},{"start":168.124,"text":"The problem is that too many drug trials have failed. "}],[{"start":172.05,"text":"Merck knows how that feels. "},{"start":174.12900000000002,"text":"Its shares slumped 12 per cent on Wednesday after a multiple sclerosis medicine flopped in late-stage trials. "},{"start":180.00900000000001,"text":"The market value dropped by €4.5bn, much more than the prospective value of the drug. "},{"start":185.952,"text":"Merck badly needs cancer treatment Xevinapant to succeed. "}],[{"start":190.25,"text":"China’s pharma researchers do a lot of R&D of their own, but do not seem to produce many blockbusters. "},{"start":196.254,"text":"Even so, it would be highly regrettable if the US stuck a spanner in the works of Chinese drugs research. "}],[{"start":202.91,"text":"The stock of Wuxi Biologics fell steeply this week after a profit warning. "},{"start":207.514,"text":"In Lex’s view, the shares were on a hair trigger. "},{"start":210.569,"text":"Foreign investors fear that America could extend sanctions against Chinese digital technology to its pharmaceuticals. "}],[{"start":217.7,"text":"This would hurt science and healthcare. "},{"start":220.07899999999998,"text":"But there is no cure for human folly. "}],[{"start":223.29999999999998,"text":"Nor for rent seeking. "},{"start":225.142,"text":"This is embodied in the expensive, dysfunctional and unfair US healthcare system. "}],[{"start":230.93999999999997,"text":"The advent of “value-based” care under the US’s state Medicare and Medicaid systems is triggering a gold rush among insurers, healthcare providers and benefits managers. "},{"start":240.21899999999997,"text":"One consequence, after successive rounds of consolidation, is a mooted $140bn insurance tie-up between Cigna and Humana. "}],[{"start":249.25999999999996,"text":"US healthcare is a horrible embarrassment, if, like me, you would prefer markets to deliver optimal outcomes. "},{"start":256.039,"text":"This is still possible for Airbus’s planned replacement for the A320 narrow-body jet. "}],[{"start":261.98999999999995,"text":"The European consortium company has nevertheless hinted it may need state support for the research and development project. "},{"start":268.21899999999994,"text":"Just to keep boss Guillaume Faury on his toes, Lex calculated that private investors have a good chance of making a decent 14 per cent internal rate of return on the $15bn project. "}],[{"start":279.2099999999999,"text":"Better get weaving on those investor slide decks, M. Faury. "}],[{"start":283.7999999999999,"text":"Developing quantum computers is a rather more speculative activity. "},{"start":287.7789999999999,"text":"Just to be clear, these do not work at present and may never do so. "},{"start":291.5089999999999,"text":"Quantum states are innately unstable, like markets. "},{"start":294.6389999999999,"text":"However, the publication of a seven-year development timeline by IBM should help to attract investment capital to the sector. "}],[{"start":302.3399999999999,"text":"

Digit fidget

"}],[{"start":304.12999999999994,"text":"Lex uses steam-powered spreadsheets, not quantum computers, for its own calculations. "},{"start":309.5469999999999,"text":"Some of the figures we reported this week usefully highlighted key stories: "}],[{"start":314.49999999999994,"text":"Dual-listed German travel group Tui may ditch London to make Frankfurt its main quote. "},{"start":319.25399999999996,"text":"Median daily volume in the FTSE All-Share is just 0.15 per cent of market value, says Panmure. "},{"start":325.57199999999995,"text":"That compares with 0.2 per cent for the Stoxx 600 ex-UK and 0.7 per cent for the S&P 500. "}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":333.72999999999996,"text":"AJ Bell has revealed that cash accounts for 13.3 per cent of its retail customer assets. "},{"start":339.64699999999993,"text":"The UK DIY investment platform faces regulatory pressure to reduce the level. "},{"start":344.727,"text":"Citi estimates that every 1 percentage point fall in these cash balances erodes earnings by 6 per cent. "}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":350.94999999999993,"text":"BAT has reduced its estimate of the economic life of its US brands from “forever” to 30 years. "},{"start":356.39199999999994,"text":"Even that may be optimistic. "},{"start":358.27199999999993,"text":"Cigarette makers are failing to persuade newly wealthy Asians to puff on their toxic wares. "},{"start":363.1139999999999,"text":"Nor are tobacco companies faring well in vapes. "}],[{"start":366.9099999999999,"text":"Spotify is on course to generate $2.2mn in sales per employee following job cuts. "},{"start":373.1019999999999,"text":"Meta should manage $2.2mn and Netflix $3mn. "},{"start":377.46899999999994,"text":"The music streaming platform may need to cut more deeply. "}],[{"start":381.5799999999999,"text":"

Things I have enjoyed

"}],[{"start":383.5399999999999,"text":"The closing credits of Napoleon. "},{"start":385.8569999999999,"text":"When they started rolling, it meant I did not have to watch the movie any more. "}],[{"start":390.2699999999999,"text":"Boney’s mob failed to kill my ancestor Gunner “Paisley Jimmy” Guthrie at the Battle of Waterloo. "},{"start":395.4489999999999,"text":"But I nearly lost my own will to live during this ahistorical, plodding account of the general’s life. "}],[{"start":401.24999999999994,"text":"I loved the Frans Hals exhibition at London’s National Gallery. "},{"start":404.9289999999999,"text":"Incredible portraiture was mournfully adorned by the name of defunct sponsor Credit Suisse. "}],[{"start":410.68999999999994,"text":"I have also greatly enjoyed writing for you over the past few years. "},{"start":414.44399999999996,"text":"Lex readers are smart, highly educated and always keen to debate an interesting point. "}],[{"start":419.4599999999999,"text":"Thank you so much for reading. "}],[{"start":421.50999999999993,"text":"Au revoir, "}],[{"start":423.1499999999999,"text":"Jonathan Guthrie "}],[{"start":425.4799999999999,"text":"Head of Lex "}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":426.5499999999999,"text":""}]],"url":"https://creatives.ftacademy.cn/album/133754-1702096066.mp3"}