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Nowhere has Donald Trump’s return as US president shaken up domestic politics quite as much as in Canada. It is remarkable enough that Mark Carney, a former central banker with no experience in politics or parliamentary seat, has been catapulted into the prime minister’s job with at least a fighting chance of winning an election that had seemed lost to his Liberal party. More remarkable still is that a Canadian leader should be faced with such a moment of peril for the country’s economy and sovereignty, after Trump’s tariff threats and talk of turning Canada into America’s 51st state. “The Americans want our resources, our water, our land, our country,” he said in his acceptance speech. “Canada never, ever, will be part of America in any way, shape or form.”
唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)重返美国总统职位，对加拿大国内政治的冲击尤为显著。令人惊讶的是，马克•卡尼(Mark Carney)，这位没有政治经验或议会席位的前央行行长，竟然被推上了总理的位置，并且至少有一线希望赢得原本对自由党来说似乎已失去的选举。而更为引人注目的是，在特朗普发出关税威胁并表示要把加拿大变成美国的第51个州之后，加拿大领导人竟然面临着这样一个危及国家经济和主权的时刻。“美国人想要我们的资源、我们的水、我们的土地、我们的国家，”他在就职演讲中说道，“加拿大绝不会以任何方式、形态或形式成为美国的一部分。”
Canada’s political landscape has been redrawn in the two months since Justin Trudeau stood down in the face of unhappiness over the Liberals’ handling of immigration, inflation and housing costs. Those domestic concerns have been eclipsed by Trump’s swingeing on-again, off-again tariffs and annexation talk — which many Canadians are taking very seriously. For more than a year, the opposition Conservative party and its Trump-inspired leader Pierre Poilievre had led Trudeau’s Liberals by up to 20 points or more. But the dangers the US president poses to Canada have revitalised the centre-left party, cutting the Conservative lead over a Carney-led Liberal party to 8 points.
贾斯汀•特鲁多(Justin Trudeau)因民众对自由党处理移民、通胀和住房成本的方式不满而下台，自此两个月以来，加拿大的政治版图已被重新划分。这些国内问题已经被特朗普反复无常的关税和吞并言论所掩盖——许多加拿大人对此非常重视。一年多来，反对党保守党及其受特朗普影响的领导人博励治(Pierre Poilievre)一直领先特鲁多的自由党多达20个百分点或更多。但美国总统给加拿大带来的危险重振了中左翼政党，将保守党对卡尼领导的自由党的领先优势缩小到8个百分点。
The Liberals’ lack of a parliamentary majority means Carney will almost certainly call an early election, and political wisdom suggests it makes sense for him to try to build on his party’s momentum. It is in the country’s best interest, too, to rapidly choose a new government with a firm mandate. An election that had until recently been expected to cement a Canadian swing — as in many other western democracies — to the populist right is now set to hinge on which of the leading candidates voters trust most to stand up to Trump.
自由党没有获得议会多数席位，这意味着卡尼几乎肯定会提前举行大选，而政治智慧表明，卡尼努力巩固其政党的势头是明智之举。同时，迅速选出一个获得坚定授权的新政府也符合国家的最佳利益。最近一直被认为会巩固加拿大向民粹主义右翼转向的选举——就像许多其他西方民主国家一样——现在将取决于选民最信任哪位主要候选人来对抗特朗普。
Some Canadians will conclude that Poilievre, who has espoused a Trump-like faith in cutting taxes and replacing “woke” excesses with “common sense politics”, is best placed to deal with the US president. Carney, by contrast, a Harvard- and Oxford-educated central banker and green investment advocate, seems to be everything Trump dislikes. Yet Carney’s experience of crisis management, as head of Canada’s central bank during the 2008 financial crisis and Britain’s during Brexit, gives him some credibility in handling a trade war that threatens to push his country into a deep recession.
一些加拿大人会得出结论，博励治支持特朗普式的减税信念，并用“常识政治”取代“觉醒”的过度行为，他最适合与美国总统打交道。相比之下，卡尼拥有哈佛大学和牛津大学的教育背景，是央行行长和绿色投资倡导者，似乎是特朗普所不喜欢的一切。然而，卡尼在2008年金融危机期间担任加拿大央行行长，在英国脱欧期间担任央行行长，他的危机管理经验使他在处理贸易战方面有一定的可信度，而这场贸易战有可能使他的国家陷入深度衰退。
His task is to convince Canadian voters he is as skilled a politician as he is a technocrat — and devise twin strategies to win an election and to deal with the US president. Carney has shown a readiness to heed disaffected Liberal voters by pledging to ditch Trudeau’s widely-criticised carbon tax, replacing it with an industrial pricing system, and reverse a capital gains tax increase.
他的任务是让加拿大选民相信，他既是一位技术官僚，也是一位娴熟的政治家，并制定出赢得大选和应对美国总统的双重策略。卡尼已经表示愿意听取心怀不满的自由党选民的意见，承诺放弃特鲁多广受诟病的碳税，代之以工业定价系统，并扭转资本利得税的增长。
The new Canadian prime minister has given less sense of his strategy for dealing with Trump, suggesting it would be wrong to do so while Trudeau was still handling negotiations. But even though Washington partially backtracked on tariffs imposed on Canada last week, Trudeau is right to have vowed to maintain retaliatory tariffs on about C$30bn ($21bn) of US goods. Robustness in standing up to the US president, while at the same time offering concessions on issues that matter to him, such as border security and drugs smuggling, seems to offer the best route to success.
候任加拿大总理对如何应对特朗普的策略透露得不多，表示在特鲁多仍在处理谈判时这样做是不对的。不过，尽管华盛顿部分撤回了上周对加拿大征收的关税，特鲁多誓言对约300亿加元的美国商品维持报复性关税是正确的。在对抗美国总统时表现出坚定，同时在他关心的问题上，如边境安全和毒品走私，做出让步，似乎是通向成功的最佳途径。
Such negotiating skills are different from those required of a central banker, even if Carney has shown some political acumen in his campaign. He has helped his party to achieve what is already an unlikely turnaround. But his toughest political tests still lie ahead.
尽管卡尼在竞选中表现出了一些政治敏锐性，但这种谈判技巧与央行行长所需的技巧不同。他帮助他的政党实现了本已不太可能的转变。但他最严峻的政治考验仍在前方。